Has the 'Apple' Fallen Too Far From the Innovation Tree?
The mighty behemoth appears to be collapsing on itself; when and how did this occur, and can it be saved?
One of the joys of Substack is that there are so many intelligent wordsmiths here you oft get inspired by other’s works. Recently, whilst commenting on a story of relevance, I glanced down at said-comment and suddenly realized that I had enough material to convert and expand it into a full-length piece; as I ever hate wasting good time spent, I decided to do just that.
What you find below is the result of that moment…
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Rotting Fruit
In a recent article on The Pragmatic Optimist, business maven (and a Stone Age favorite)
- writing with the ever-astute - discussed the business health and well-being of a long-time investor-darling, Apple.While the prognosis was heavy on the ‘pragmatic’? It is fairly light on ‘optimism’…
Apple is not having a good 2024 so far. The company’s market capitalization has fallen by more than 10% since the start of this year, as the long arm of the law is catching up really fast. Then, there is the question of innovation, or rather, its silence on the matter, leading investors to lose faith and patience in the company’s vision.
I cannot blame them for said-lightness; honestly, I have been wondering about the company’s long-term prospects for years, especially regarding its innovation drop-off. More on that in a moment, though; first, let’s take a look at the ‘now.’
As is detailed in the above-linked article, Apple is in trouble. Between legal attacks coming from home and abroad, to the (seemingly valid) perception that they are falling behind in the AI game? Across the board the once-unshakable faith supporters of the company have projected is indeed being shaken, consumer and investor alike.
In a wee bit of synergy, it is the consumer-turn which is undoubtedly spooking investors the most. For years Apple had one of the most rabid fan-bases a company could desire; in an era when brand-loyalty is increasingly more and more difficult to build and maintain, Apple had a near-lock on the concept.
Now, however? It appears to be waning, and with greater haste than previously imagined.
So when and how did this very-slow downward slide begin? The year was 2011, and the catalyst was the death of one man; his name, was Steve Jobs.
A Teetering Legacy
Nearly thirteen years have passed since the death of the former Apple guru, and due to a variety of attack-ventures since (films, television programs, and books), some of the shine has been rubbed away from his sparkling reputation. He has been labelled as everything from visionary genius to intellectual thief, generous and kind to mercurial and devious, and with the abundance of ‘juicy’ information available? It was a feeding frenzy in the media, especially in the first decade after his passing.
No matter what you may think of Jobs, however, there is one thing which is undeniable; he had his finger on the pulse of ‘tech culture,’ before such a thing existed. His innate instincts for what people wanted - even if they didn’t know they wanted it - and his ability to drive ideas forward with rapidity allowed Apple to dominate its field in ways few companies ever have.
He alone redefined the concept of ‘innovation,’ and even accusations of ‘stolen’ ideas in no way robs him of that distinction. He irreversibly moved the needle, and our lifestyles - for better or worse - are permanently changed because if it.
Because of his company… because of him. Then Tim Cook was named CEO the same year as Job’s death, and the slow collapse of Apple began in earnest.
To be fair to Cook, his selection made perfect sense at the time. While it is easy to forget, in retrospect Jobs had many detractors during his reign; he was seen by some as a reckless wildcard, an unpredictable maverick who they felt had as many failures as successes. Cook represented a stabilizing force to Jobs-doubters, a sound and effective manager who would resolutely stay on course and smoothly steer an increasingly-reliable ship.
And if Apple was in a static industry, like manufacturing hammers or whipping up fishing lures, that would have been great. In the world of high-tech, however, where paradigms shift quickly and innovative leadership is critical, Cook was simply the wrong man for the job.
And now, after 13 years of profiting off of the legacy of the man who came before, that lack of innovation is finally catching up to them.
Your Voice
The Innovation Gulf
If you review the entirety of Cook’s tenure at Apple with a critical eye, one thing stands out: There have been very few - if any - high-value innovations during his leadership. Honestly, aside from maybe ‘Apple Pay,’ I cannot think of one.
Think I am exaggerating? Let us review a few of their self-touted items…
- Apple Watch: A delayed, largely-botched roll-out ruined what should have been an apex moment for Cook; since then, the device has largely become an overpriced accessory, no more ‘vital’ than a favored necklace or lucky tie.
- Apple TV: While first announced during Jobs’ reign, implementation did not gain steam until after his passing. A piss-poor understanding of the streaming ecosystem, and who the target audience should be, caused a cascade of bad decisions at a time when the market was ripe for dominance.
- Siri: Once the benchmark of AI voice assistants, development of the feature has stagnated, not keeping up with the fast-moving AI field; to many, Siri has become a quaint relic of a bygone era, like the arcade version of Donkey Kong… but with less-riveting benefits.
- Apple Car: Seriously, what the hell was that about?
One might be tempted to point at AirPods as a positive ‘innovation’ but Bluetooth-based headphones are hardly groundbreaking; also - at least in my experience - a good portion of the time they flat-out do not work. The Pods oft will not connect to my phone, and - when they do connect - will occasionally start playing the last song to which I was listening, without any prompt from me to do so. With such gnarly performance, I cannot get on board with that one, either.
The facts are clear to me: Apple has sustained itself through reproducing, refreshing, and rebranding products created during the Jobs era - iMac and iPhone, iPad and iTunes. The Cook Regime also (inexplicably!) destroyed the one legacy product which could have revitalized the company - there was still so much that could have been done with the iPod - which helped widen the gulf between risky innovation and cautious duplication even more.
As mentioned above, the company has been resting on its laurels for far too long, and it is beginning to haunt them. Add to that the sheer hubris of selling products at exaggerated price-points based on those laurels (and a reputation of ‘greatness’ which is no longer justified), and it seems that consumers and investors are just finally worn out.
I honestly cannot see a path forward for Apple to overcome this decline, at least not while Tim Cook is in charge. ‘Managers’ are not - and have never been - ‘innovators,’ and in this industry?
If you’re not innovating… you are dying.
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Article mentioned above, by Amrita Roy and Uttam Dey…
Notes…
-- In the spirit of full disclosure, I AM an Apple user (iMac notwithstanding); I only note this in case you are thinking I am some anti-Apple, pro-Android fanboi - I am not.
-- Programming Note: The Three-Dot Tablet [TDT] returns tomorrow (Saturday) night, being posted sometime after 20:00 Central.
-- Unless otherwise credited, all images are created by the author, using Substack’s AI Image Generator.
Loved the take on our post, Stone! - I think the arguments you made here capture the full essence of your perspective: "There have been very few - if any - high-value innovations during his leadership. Honestly, aside from maybe ‘Apple Pay,’ I cannot think of one."
My two cents here: I guess this was Steve Jobs plan when he hired Tim Cooks in '98. Tim Cooks is a veteran at Operations and was hired to lead Sales & Operations far from the fruits of innovation and design reaped by Steve Jobs era. I'd say Tim Cooks has managed to navigate the company well by leaning on his skills in Operations. But that has also sort of put Apple in the Innovation Gulf.
Thanx Stone. I have been a Mac owner since 1995 and an iPhone owner since 2010, and my current devices (MacBookAir & iPhone SE, both 2017) are victims of Apple's ~7 year built-in obsolesence - they will not run the latest OS, and security updates will end soon.
For various reasons, I have decided not to buy further Apple products, and am searching for alternatives. As a 19th Century Refugee, I'm proud of my neo-Ludditeism and wish I had the freedom to replace neither. Alas, modern life requires me to, so I'm exploring Linux devices, which are not user-friendly, and Linux phones aren't even ready for primary device usage yet. Someone suggested getting a used Lenovo ThinkPad 700 series (apparently one of the most secure devices ever made), wiping the HD and installing Linux. Just thinking about that process makes my palms sweaty!
Woe is me!